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A well-put case for optimism. Thank you.

IF Canberra told Beijing, "We are in the grasp of a giant crocodile so please overlook our offenses, since we commit them on command – but underneath we love you guys", then OK, we can be optimistic because China can afford to be magnanimous. They are very good at that kind of diplomacy.

But if we didn't then the pessimist's case is brief, simple, and requiring no leaps of faith. We have never apologized for striking the first mortal blow on China's tech pride and joy, Huawei, nor for a lot of other things we've refused to discuss.

And lately, Penny Wong has been insulting and baiting China as though we had no wish to resume trading.

I have seen no sign from us of a change or heart, word, or action, and I suspect Beijing hasn't either. Our regional neighbors consider us smug, violent and pathetically subordinated to the USA, so if China leaves the pressure on for a few more years, they'll quite understand.

And so should we.

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