Goodbye, thank you, and good luck

Goodbye

It might sound a little twee, but I started writing BCB back in May 2021 because I believed that more analysis of bilateral ties would benefit Australia, its government, and people. I still think that’s true. Yet after three and a half years, more than 115 editions, and nearly 180,000 words, I’m ready to call time and focus on other projects. Rest assured, the Australia-China relationship will stay close to my heart. But for now, it’s goodbye from BCB.

Thank you

Researching and writing are mostly solitary affairs. And although I’ve genuinely loved countless solo hours drilling into the nitty-gritty details of Australia-China relations, I wouldn’t have written BCB without you. It’s been an honour and a privilege to have you reading, responding, and keeping me on my toes. In a world of ever more analysis, I don’t take the time you’ve given BCB lightly. To quote Jay-Z: “You could’ve been anywhere in the world. But you’re here with me. I appreciate that.” So, thank you for reading.

Thanks also to all the researchers, officials, journalists, businesspeople, and others who’ve reached out to discuss and debate. I’ve learnt so much from you and I’m grateful for your insights and candour. A final massive thanks to my ANU colleagues, and especially Anthea Roberts and Darren Lim. Beyond their whip-smart intellect, political nous, and humility, Anthea and Darren have each offered me the unfailing support and academic freedom that have made BCB possible. For that, I’m eternally indebted.

Good luck

The Australia-China relationship has changed dramatically in the three and a half years that I’ve been writing BCB. Australian and Chinese ministers hadn’t spoken in nearly one and a half years when I published the first edition back in May 2021. And, as it turned out, they wouldn’t talk for at least another year. Back then, Canberra and Beijing were locked in an often-explosive war of words and exports to China of nine Australian products collectively worth more than $20 billion per annum were being targeted by politically motivated trade restrictions.

For all the subsequent bilateral relationship repair, Australian live lobster and two red meat exporters still face barriers to the Chinese market as I write this farewell edition. Meanwhile, sharp diplomatic barbs were flying between Canberra and Beijing as recently as last month. The final trade restrictions might be gone in the next few weeks and the stinging rhetoric of late October might be an aberration. Even so, the bilateral relationship repair of these past few years has been slow, hard won, and uncertain. Further repairing relations and keeping them stable is likely to be an enduring challenge for successive Australian governments.

More broadly, and despite the upward trajectory of bilateral ties in recent years, ominous storms are brewing overseas. It’s too early to know the final composition of the second Trump administration’s Cabinet, much less its precise policy positions on a range of pressing international issues. Yet regardless of the specifics of Washington’s policy direction under Trump, US-China competition is set to intensify. As I’ve previously flagged, more hostile relations between Washington and Beijing won’t always be bad for Canberra. Still, amidst possible opportunities, Australia is likely to face new and tough tests in the years ahead as increasingly adversarial US and Chinese statecraft roil our region and the world.

As always, I could be wrong. But if I was forced to take a punt, I’d predict that we’re only in the very early stages of an era of great power competition of truly world-historical proportions. Not only does this US-China struggle likely have a long way to run, but it’s poised to become much more aggressive and volatile. With Australia’s deep and enduring security ties to the United States and intense economic interdependence with China, the associated turbulence is likely to be especially jarring for us. Hold on tight, look after each other, and good luck to us all.